March 2024 Fort Worth Statistics At-A-Glance
**Source: Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors
Credit: Old Republic Title
No longer ladened with rising interest rates and the specter of recession, 2024 is expected to be a moderate rebound year for the housing market. The first quarter witnessed some good omens for the critical spring season.
According to Realtor.com, both January and February saw more newly listed homes compared to last year. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) also reported that existing home sales jumped 11.4% from Q4 2023 and were off 2.3% year-to-year. New homes again filled the void of existing inventory and their sales climbed 11.6% since Q1 2023. More inventory is also on the way.
Single-family starts soared over 30% year-to-year, and builder, buyer and seller sentiments were buoyed by several factors. Fannie Mae projects that Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Q1 2024 will reach a healthy 2.4%. Unemployment also remained historically quite low at 3.8%. Although The Fed has held its rate steady so far this year, talks of impending cuts narrowed the spread of the 30-year fixed mortgage over 10-year treasuries. Consequently, rates swung down at the end of last year and zigzagged below 7% over the first three months of the year.
With demand strong, the MBA anticipates that the year-to-year change in theFHFA House Price Index will settle at 5.7% for Q1 2024. Unaffordability remained an issue, due to the relatively high interest and ballooning costs of home insurance in natural disaster-plagued areas. However, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) Affordability Index suggests it may have peaked for this cycle last fall. Interest rate declines were the largest factor in moderating this index, but median income growth averaged 6% last year. A jump in houses available in the $200,000 range contributed as well.
Market participants found ways to circumvent higher costs. Buyers increasingly avoided loans withcash salesaltogether, which were at a 10-year-high in February (perhaps funded from a resurgent stock market). According to the National Association of Home Builders, builders’ incentives remained an integral part of 60% of purchases. Sellers also touted assumable mortgages, which allow a buyer to take on the seller’s existing mortgage and tap into lower interest rates.
A Glance Forward
Most forecasts point to a stronger homebuying season than the last. With mortgage rates expected to fall to 6.6% next quarter, and GDPgrowth solidly in the black, demand for housing could translate into a durable rebound in single-family housing starts and total home sales. Spring also historically brings a revival in mortgage originations. While median home prices are expected to continue rising, the MBA thinks the FHFA House Price Index will moderate slightly to 5.3% on a yearly basis.
For the CRE market, Jamie Woodwell, head of commercial real estate research for the MBA, recently stated, “This year’s maturities, coupled with greater clarity in [property values and fundamentals] and other areas, should begin to break the logjam in the markets."
There are $929B in maturitiescoming due in 2024, with about a third of maturities in 2023 being extended or modified into this year. This volume of loans is likely to spur more distressed sales and give the market more time to clear. However, a marked improvement in activity may not come until mid-June, if The Fed makes the first of its anticipated rate cuts for the year.
The real estate markets in the spring will likely be mixed, but not without some bright spots.
For answers to your questions about buying a new home, reach out to Amanda Cooper - Mortgage Lender today. She’ll be happy to go over what products and assistance might be available to you and help you choose the right loan for your unique needs.
Source: Old Republic Title
Credit: New American Funding - Jason Obradovich
2024 has not been the year everyone was expecting so far. Treasury rates are actually up nearing 90bps since the end of 2023. Taking a look at the graph on your screen, you can see that the 3 Year Treasury is up 87bps since January 12th.
The prospects of the Federal Reserve lowering rates 3 times or more has been basically eliminated as a possibility with inflation still stubbornly above the Fed’s target. Last week headline CPI was up 3.5% year-over-year-old vs the market’s expectation of 3.4% and more importantly, core CPI was up 3.8% vs the market’s expectation of 3.7%.
It may be only a 0.1% difference, but it was a reminder to the market that inflation is very stubborn and the Fed doesn’t need to move quickly thanks to a pretty resilient economy and job market.
Speaking of inflation, next week is the more important PCE for March, which may confirm the stubbornness of inflation and likelihood that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. As of today, the market is only pricing in 1.5 Fed moves this year vs the original three that the FOMC had projected.
Is the market overreacting to the CPI report or will inflation continue to bounce around these levels and give the Fed sufficient ammunition to keep rates higher for longer? We will likely find out next Thursday when PCE comes out.
For answers to your questions about buying a new home, reach out to Amanda Cooper - Mortgage Lender today. She’ll be happy to go over what products and assistance might be available to you and help you choose the right loan for your unique needs.
The Best Gas Grills for Your Backyard Barbecues
Everyone has their own opinion when it comes to the charcoal versus gas grill debate. Neither side is wrong, of course, with both types of grills coming with their own pros and cons. Charcoal grills, for instance, can reach higher temperatures and give food that rich smoky flavor, while gas grills allow for faster start times, precise temperature control, and greater overall convenience.
Gas grills can also turn on and off in an instant, allowing you to get cooking without the long setup. Unlike charcoal, you can maintain specific temperatures without a whole lot work, either – simply turn the dial to the desired heat setting and the grill will take care of the rest. That means, you can set low temperatures, high temperatures, and everything in between without having to continually watch the fire and fan over the flames. Even better, many gas grills come with side burners that allow you to cook multiple food items at different temperatures, allowing for much more versatile cooking options. Not to mention, the minimal cleanup necessary, compared to all the ash you’ll have to dispose when cooking using charcoal.
Many homeowners prefer gas grills over charcoal for all of those reasons. According to a 2022 survey from the Hearth, Patio & Barbecue Association (HPBA), 64 percent of all gas grills in American households use gas. This is why there’s such a dizzying selection of gas grills in the market, with each manufacturer trying to integrate fancy features to make their models standout. As nice as some of those bells and whistles are, we prefer focusing on the core elements, such as size, build quality, precision control, and heat output, although we’ll obviously take extra niceties into account, especially among grills that already get the basics right.
These are the best gas grills for your backyard barbecues.
7 Recipes You Can Make In 5 Minutes
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